For years, doctors have been using a mathematical equation to assess patients’ risk of experiencing a cardiovascular disease event. Called the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk Equation, the formula assesses an individual’s risk for events such as a heart attack, ischemic stroke, or death from coronary artery disease. Though the equation has been considered a monumental step toward preventing heart disease, a recent study suggests the equation is flawed and has consequently led many patients to be prescribed unnecessary medications.
Published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, the study states that the risk equation substantially overestimates adults’ actual risk for a condition called atherosclerosis. Also known as atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, atherosclerosis occurs when cholesterol plaque builds on the walls of the arteries. Eventually, the plaque can obstruct blood flow, triggering a heart attack or stroke and killing the person.
The risk equation gained popularity as a method of predicting atherosclerosis after it was published by the American College of Cardiology in 2013. However, it was wildly outdated. First developed in the 1990s, the risk equation was based on a group of volunteers with little ethnic diversity and a small age range, making the equation extremely inaccurate when used across different groups of people.
"Our study provides critical evidence to support recalibration of the risk equation in real world populations, especially given the individual and public health implications of the widespread application of this risk calculator," said senior author Dr. Alan S. Go, chief of cardiovascular and metabolic conditions research at the Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, in a press release.

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